Hong Kong says AI is displacing entry-level jobs, with vacancies for fresh graduates down 60% on 2022

Hong Kong's government has put numbers on what it says AI is doing to its job market, and the two groups it says AI will primarily affect are fresh graduates looking for entry-level work and middle-aged clerical workers without post-secondary education.

The Labour and Welfare Bureau published a mid-term update of its manpower projection on Tuesday 22 September. Its press release says the number of job vacancies suitable for fresh graduates has fallen "sharply by approximately 60 per cent compared to 2022", which it attributes to "the displacement of entry-level positions". The full report gives the figures — from around 80,000 in 2022 to around 31,000 in 2025 — and puts it more cautiously: "Enterprises have become cautious regarding entry-level hiring." The press release also identifies "approximately 70 000 middle-aged clerical support workers aged 45 to 54 without post-secondary education" as "facing transition pressure".

What the projection says

The headline number is the overall shortage. Hong Kong's manpower shortage by 2028 is now projected at about 130,000, down from about 180,000 in the government's previous projection, published in 2024. The press release opens by crediting the government's talent-admission and labour-importation schemes, and adds that "economic restructuring and AI adoption have moderated the growth in manpower demand". The report itself puts AI closer to the centre: it says the narrowing is "primarily driven by economic transformation and AI adoption moderating annual manpower requirement growth from 1.1% to 0.7%", alongside the admission measures.

Within that total, the picture splits by occupation. The shortage is concentrated among "skilled technical workers" and "services and sales workers", about 60% of the total, in roles the bureau describes as relying on "interpersonal interaction and complex craftsmanship" and so "harder for AI to replace". The shortages there come from an ageing workforce and difficulty attracting young entrants, it says. Clerical work goes the other way: "as companies expand AI adoption for routine administrative tasks", clerical support workers are projected to be in surplus by roughly 25,000 to 30,000 by 2028.

By sector, the bureau's annex projects the largest shortage in construction, at 30,000 to 40,000, followed by city operation (20,000 to 25,000) and healthcare services (13,000 to 18,000). The only selected industry projected to be in surplus by more than 500 is international trade, at 5,000 to 8,000.

How big the government thinks the AI effect is

The press release is cautious about the near term. It says research indicates AI "in applicable roles will boost individual productivity by 20 per cent to 30 per cent", that companies are "currently managing the transition through natural attrition", and that "the risk of large-scale layoffs in the short term remains relatively low". But it adds that "approximately 20 per cent to 30 per cent of positions, primarily clerical roles, will face restructuring".

The full report says some 70% of the medium and large companies (50 or more workers) surveyed in its sectoral consultation had used AI in their business over the past year. It also cites an International Monetary Fund estimate that AI would affect over half of employed positions in Hong Kong, split between replacing work and complementing it, which the report describes as similar to advanced economies overall.

On our reading, the combination is the notable part. The bureau is saying two things at once: companies are managing the transition through natural attrition, with a low short-term risk of large-scale layoffs, and vacancies suitable for fresh graduates fell by more than 60% between 2022 and 2025. The first describes the change from inside a company; the second is how it looks to someone trying to get in. A projection is not a measurement, and the report is the government's own analysis, but the graduate-vacancy figure is a comparison with 2022 rather than a forecast.

What the government says it will do

The Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Chris Sun, said the government would strengthen retraining, provide "flexible skill-conversion programmes for elderly and middle-aged employees", "enhance the employment support for young graduates" and "explore incentives for employers and employees to engage in on-the-job retraining". The release says the government "will continue to promote 'AI for All'", and names "human-machine collaboration" as a basic competency, with interpersonal communication, critical thinking and problem-solving among the skills AI cannot replace.

On the same day, France presented an €80 million plan aimed at getting workers and smaller firms to use AI. On our reading, the two approach the same shift from opposite ends: France is trying to raise adoption, while Hong Kong's report describes a labour market where, by its own figures, adoption is already widespread.